Why I'd Rather Be Wrong About Bitcoin
Book Shelf: Bitcoin One Million by Fred Krueger and Ben Sigman
Bitcoin is down 50% from its all time high in late 2025. If you rode this rollercoaster up and all the way down with me to today and need a way to refocus on your conviction, this is the book to read.
The authors Fred Krueger and Ben Sigman explain how, in their perspective, $1M bitcoin is inevitable. Starting with nature’s mathematical formula supported by real-time data on a companion website b1M.io. The most compelling and simple mathematical explanation is Bitcoin’s 48-month moving average power law with R-squared of 0.99, nearly perfect.
Image: Chapter 1: The Bitcoin Power Law
Bitcoin One Million goes on to demonstrate that the real measure of inflation is related to money printing. Inflation equals money supply growth less population growth less productivity growth. In practice, CPI = MSG - PG - PRG. Where CPI has been 3% to 4% for several years, effectively the result of money supply growth at +7%, population growth 0.5% to 1%, and productivity growth 1.5% to 2%. A huge take-away here to pay more attention to M2 money supply growth over long periods of time, you can track the measures for yourself here.
Source: M2 Money Supply Chart and reference M2 Money Supply Report
The one line the entire premise of this Substack rests on; “when you can’t win playing by the rules, the only logical move is to play a different game entirely.” This was brought up in the context of how “investors” have turned to meme stocks, cryptocurrency, and anything with lottery-ticket potential. While that may be appealing that is not what we are doing here, this Substack is about long term conviction and a daily practice that enables holding a volatile asset while living a life full of purpose.
Krueger and Sigman explain that “the fundamental structure of democracy combined with fiat money make this impossible.” This being the idea that governments could one day become fiscally responsible, stop printing money, and return to sound monetary policy. I couldn’t agree more that, “democracy plus fiat currency created an inescapable cycle of monetary debasement.” However, reading this book and having deep conviction in Bitcoin is the exact way to play a different game entirely.
Image: Chapter 3: Inflation
The book is a quick read. The Bitcoin Power Law fuels the conviction, the money printer and inflation chapters sharpen the disapproval of the current system, and the middle of the book weighs every other asset type against a Bitcoin standard.
If you do not develop the conviction to move a significant portion of your net worth into Bitcoin after reading this book, the authors offer up The Kelly Criterion, a method to help answer the question; how much Bitcoin should you own?
The last two chapters close out the thesis and tie it all together describing what the world looks like when we eventually have $1M Bitcoin and then the same for $10M. Spoiler alert, the authors predict 2035 and 2045 respectively.
Personally, I’ve been in Bitcoin since 2021, I remember the first time I saw the power law chart with nearly perfect R-squared several years ago, every time I am reminded of this mathematical power, I just smile.
Read this book if you are trying to understand what Bitcoin is, if you are thinking about holding Bitcoin, or if you are thinking about going all in. Bitcoin One Million offers mathematical support for the authors’ conviction.
In closing the book they raise an important perspective I think about often, “children growing up in this world [of $10M Bitcoin] will find the old monetary system incomprehensible. ‘You mean governments could just create money out of nothing? And people accepted that?’ They’ll understand money as a law of physics, not a political decision.” This is why I believe in Bitcoin and have such strong conviction, we need to deleverage the fiat system in a way that makes life better for future generations. It’s the same as trying to explain the VCR or a mixtape to my kids today, they look at me like I am crazy and say “are you kidding?” I would rather be wrong about Bitcoin than ignore it entirely hoping the system will fix itself, or worse, hope the government fixes it for us.
“The printing press democratized knowledge. Bitcoin democratized money. Those who recognize this early - who understand that mathematical consensus could replace political control - participated in the greatest peaceful revolution in human history.” - Bitcoin One Million, Chapter 21
